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Natural rubber industry inventory in 2018: prices continue to be low
Jan 08, 2019

In 2017, the natural rubber level dropped, and the price remained low in 2018. As of December, the global downstream demand for natural rubber production was sluggish, the price was sluggish for a long time, and the rebound was weak. In 2019, the task of de-stocking natural rubber was arduous.


Memorabilia:


1. The 20th rubber project in the previous period was approved.


On June 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the application for the No. 20 standard rubber as a specific futures product has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The variety will replicate the relevant policies of crude oil futures, adopting the “international platform and renminbi pricing” as the listing model, adopting the scheme of net price trading and bonded delivery, and fully introducing the participation of overseas traders. The market's impact on the full latex index after the listing of the 20th rubber and the market investment structure caused by the change in capital flow, the market fell sharply in the short term.


2. The trade impact is complicated


After China took reciprocal counter-measures on US$50 billion in goods on June 15, the US threatened to set up a $200 billion tax collection list. On June 19, China made a tough response. Trade is complicated for a long time. Affected by the trading environment, commodities including natural rubber are weak. On July 10, the US counterattacks China's policy and will impose a 10% tariff on China's US$200 million in goods. The list covers almost all rubber products (with the exception of only a few varieties).


3. Floods in rubber-producing areas in India


In August, natural rubber was under pressure from high stocks, high output, high imports, and low demand. The market sentiment was sluggish. Hujiao fell sharply and fell below the million mark. However, since August, the largest natural rubber production area in southern India (its natural rubber production accounted for 70% of India's total) - Kerala suffered a severe flooding and affected exports, and Hujiao rebounded sharply to the daily limit. In fact, the amount of rubber produced in India is small in the world, and the impact is not long-lasting.


4. China-Malaysia cooperation rubber asphalt


The joint statement between China and the Malaysian government, Hainan Agricultural Reclamation and the Malaysian Rubber Bureau signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in promoting the commercialization of modified rubber asphalt road technology and accelerating the development and application of intelligent rubber cutting equipment.


5. Thailand suffered severe rainstorm


Since the beginning of December, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia have experienced continuous rains in recent days, and moderate to heavy rains have occurred in some areas, which has affected the tapping operation. The southern part of Thailand was affected by the continuous heavy rain, which caused flooding in some areas. Among them, Nakhon Si Thammarat was seriously affected, and other major rubber-producing areas were also affected to varying degrees. Natural rubber production will slow down.


6, plastic bottles hurt farmers


On November 20th the Thai government passed a new subsidy policy and other measures to help the rubber farmers. The rubber farmers believe that this measure will only allow 10% of the rubber farmers to benefit from the sharp drop in rubber prices. Thai rubber farmers are struggling and threatening to hold protests. As the world's largest rubber producer, Thai rubber prices have fallen by 40% in the past two years. With the decline in downstream demand and high inventory levels, the rubber price situation is even more severe.


7. The rubber industry faces “the coldest winter”


In 2018, the price of natural rubber continued to be sluggish. Plastics injured farmers, rubber farmers abandoned cutting, abandoned tubes and even cut trees, which threatened the livelihood of rubber farmers and affected the development of the industry. Rubber farmers and gum trees, from "love" to "phase." hate". Sun Shihai, general manager of Haijiao Group Golden Rubber Co., Ltd., who has been engaged in rubber sales for a long time: "At present, Hainan rubber sales price has fallen below the glue factory cost line."


Not only domestically, rubber prices in some major producing countries in Southeast Asia are generally low, and in addition to the adverse weather, rubber farmers have abandoned. Natural rubber production in Vietnam, Malaysia and India decreased year-on-year. The weak demand in the downstream tire market and the high inventory of natural rubber, the rubber producing countries have not clearly restricted the export favor, coupled with the impact of the macro environment on the overall commodity, the rubber industry ushered in the "coldest cold winter."


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