On October 29, the volume of Shanghai rubber fell, and the main contract hit a new low within the year.However, there is no new negative news recently, the price of crude oil continued to fall in the early rebound;The operation rate of tire enterprises in shandong increased.The tax rebate for tyre exports was raised to 13% from 9%.Although the above subject matter may not be able to support the price of rubber go higher, but Shanghai rubber at this point down breakthrough is still surprising.
Of course, the negative factor has always existed.The import of rubber is the main source to meet the domestic demand. In the past, the correlation between the RMB and the price of rubber was relatively obvious, but the supporting effect of the rising import cost caused by the recent RMB devaluation on the price of rubber was relatively limited.In particular, at present, the RMB exchange rate is facing an important level.Thus, traders import enthusiasm is not high, wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, the market is short of the intention to buy gum.In addition, the domestic rubber inventory level is high, while the downstream consumption is not vigorous, and the demand for imported rubber is not so urgent.
Although the inventory of rubber in Qingdao bonded area has continued to decline since late September, the total inventory was only 112,000 tons in mid-october, which was 105,000 tons less than the peak at the end of August, a decline of nearly 50%.However, it is said that the large amount of rubber outflow is not due to increased demand, but to warehouse policy adjustment in the bonded area.In addition, Thailand's exports of rubber in September were down by 12.5% and 14.5% compared with the same month last year.
The stock of the futures of tianjiao of the previous period has been higher for a long time, among which, the inventory of the futures reached a new high of 5916 thousand tons on October 26th. Although the total futures warehouse bill dropped slightly to 513 thousand tons, it is not far from the historical peak of 521 thousand tons.A large portion of the current warehouse orders will be written off after the expiration of the 1811 contract, which has less than 20,000 positions, and future outflows of the futures warehouse will put heavy pressure on the spot market.
Although the fourth quarter is the peak season for rubber consumption, the situation of automobile production and sales is not optimistic at present, and the advance of "rail transit" policy also casts a shadow on the demand prospect of freight trucks.However, the export tax rebate rate for tires was expected to increase from 9 percent to 10 percent, while the latest notice from the ministry of finance was raised to 13 percent, which should have a more positive effect on domestic tire exports than expected.Of course, the ease of trade friction is the key factor to determine the export situation.